The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl on Sunday, so the stock market will fall this year.
Or so says the infamous Super Bowl Predictor, which says that the market will rise when a team from the original NFL (these days, mostly the NFC) wins the Super Bowl, and declines when a team from the old American Football League (mostly today’s AFC) wins.
It’s a bunch of hooey, of course, as MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert has written about and debunked.
Last year, for example, the NFC’s Philadelphia Eagles won, and stocks still went down the drain. The year before that, the AFC’s Patriots won and stocks soared. So . . .
The theory actually had a good track record for a while. But much less so in recent years, as Jeffrey Kleintop, chief of global investment strategies at Charles Schwab Corp.
, pointed out in a tweet Sunday:
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) February 3, 2019
When there are only two options, a 48% accuracy rate over the past 20 years is not what you’d call statistically significant. It’s basically a coin flip.
So carry on, investors, no need to panic just yet.
On the bright side: If the market actually does fall this year, we can all blame Tom Brady, just for kicks.
Providing critical information for the U.S. trading day. Subscribe to MarketWatch's free Need to Know newsletter. Sign up here.