Home Sports Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from advanced model on 91-61 run – CBS Sports

Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, line: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from advanced model on 91-61 run – CBS Sports

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The Chargers will try to move closer to the top of the division against an AFC West foe that has given them fits when Los Angeles faces the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Kansas City has won nine of the last 10, but the Chargers won the most recent matchup, knocking of the Chiefs 29-28 on a last-minute touchdown and a two-point conversion. The Chargers lost 26-24 last week when the Raiders scored with 1:08 left. They dropped to 4-6, but with Philip Rivers and a resurgent running game, they are hoping to get on roll in Mexico City, site of Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a five-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 52.5, off a half-point from the opener. Before you consider making any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks, you should listen to the current NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 11 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 29-18 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 91-61 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

Last season, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.   

Now, it has analyzed Chiefs vs. Chargers. We can tell you it’s leaning under, and it says one side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can see that pick at SportsLine now.

The model knows the Chiefs have an embarrassment of riches on offense and are 20-8 against the spread in their last 28 division games. Mahomes is the reigning league MVP and can get the ball to playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman or All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce. Damien Williams has taken over as the starting running back and has 302 yards and three TDs, while LeSean McCoy has 371 and two TDs. 

Kansas City will try to shore up a run defense that struggled last week, but has been stout against the pass. Derrick Nnadi and Chris Jones clog the middle, and linebackers Damien Wilson (59) and Anthony Hitchens (50) make the stops. Kansas City is going off at 12-1 Super Bowl odds, according to the latest NFL futures.

But just because Kansas City is loaded with talent on offense doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Chargers spread on Monday Night Football in this 2019 NFL in Mexico City game. 

The Chargers are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 November games and Rivers doesn’t appear to have slowed down. He is 184 passing yards shy of his 14th consecutive season with at least 3,000 yards and has 14 touchdown passes. His favorite target is veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, who has 62 yards and 725 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Henry is a reliable target with 33 catches for 418 yards and three TDs. Running back Melvin Gordon finally broke out against Oakland with 108 yards and a touchdown, while Austin Ekeler has 340 yards on 90 carries.

The defense is in the top six in the league in passing yards (fifth at 207.8 per game) and total yards (sixth at 318.3) allowed. Linebacker Thomas Davis (78 tackles) stops everything that comes near him, while Joey Bosa is a dervish with 14.5 tackles for loss, including 8.5 sacks. Melvin Ingram has 4.5 sacks for the Chargers, who are 5-2 against the spread against teams with a winning record. They have 24 sacks overall and 52 tackles for loss. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins and cornerback Casey Hayward have two interceptions apiece.

So who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chargers vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over on Monday, all from the model that has returned almost $7,000 on its top-rated picks.

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