While conservative tracking suggests Avengers: Endgame is within $200 million-$250 million for its opening weekend at the domestic box office, some analysts this morning believe that after the gonzo first-day record pre-sales for the Russo Brothers’ sequel that the pic certainly has a good shot getting north of $260M. That would make it the highest-grossing domestic opening of all-time (beating Infinity War‘s already record of $257.6M). Endgame’s three-day nearing $300M isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Yes, Endgame can get to this box office threshold, even with a running time of 3 hours and 2 minutes. (Avengers: Infinity War had a running time of 2 hours and 29 minutes, and Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens clocked in at 2 hours and 16 minutes.) Math provided to Deadline by B.O. analysts supports this projection range even if Endgame has only four or five showtimes a day, at a 70% capacity at 12,000 U.S. auditoriums.
Again, this is based off the logical assumption that the movie will play in north of 4,000 theaters. Avengers: Infinity War opened at 4,474 theaters, the third-widest opener of all time behind Despicable Me 3 (4,529) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (4,475).
Momentum and interest on tracking services is high, and will only grow. What could slow these projections down? Bad reviews, but we hear that’s not the case with this Thanos follow-up: One credible industry professional who saw the movie says the second half is mind-blowing. First day pre-sales for Endgame have already outstripped that of Force Awakens on Fandango, the online ticket retailer’s previous first-day presales record.
“If it grosses $250M that’s great, although everyone will see that as disappointing. $265M seems real and wonderful. When we get into this level of number we have no comps, so hard to know,” says one film finance/B.O. analyst who has been correct recently — the analyst called the low openings for Glass and the over-indexing of Jordan Peele’s Us.
As is typical with Marvel movies at this point in tracking, numbers are huge across the board; even with men and the under 25 segments strongest in unaided awareness and first choice, women are not that far behind.
Avengers: Endgame opens, and stars summer, on April 26.